Topic B: Global Climate Change
Statement of the Problem
Global warming may be the chief and most complicated environmental problem to
potentially affect our planet. The climate has been warming fast since the Industrial Revolution,
because human activities are altering the composition of our atmosphere.
The mechanics behind global warming may be described in the following way:
All of energy on Earth comes from the sun in
form of solar radiation. This energy is then
radiated back into space. However, the
atmospheric gases work to trap some outgoing
heat, not unlike panels of a greenhouse, warming
the planet and its inhabitants. Without this
effect, life on earth would not be possible. The
problem at hand, however, is the continued
increase in the concentration of these
Ògreenhouse gasesÓ, a group of substances that
mainly consist of carbon dioxide, methane, and
nitrous oxide. As the amount of these chemicals
in our atmosphere increases, they retain more
and more heat inside the atmospheric level, making the planet warmer.
Carbon dioxide has always been emitted in large quantities by plant decomposition and
respiration; however terrestrial vegetation and oceans absorbed it, keeping a balance. Much of
todayÕs CO
2
is produced by burning fossil fuels, which are used for heating, running cars, and
powering factories.
Methane and nitrous oxide also occur in nature, but some very powerful greenhouse
gases like hydrofluorocarbons (HFCÕs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCÕs) are produced only in
industrial processes. They are the most heat-absorbent substances in the atmosphere.
Most environmentalists are concerned that global warming is a potential danger for life
on earth. Some of the possible outcomes are changes in weather patterns and increase in extreme
climate events, such as drought, floods, and storms. This would result in decreased agricultural
output, increase in disease and other health risks. Less developed nations are the most
vulnerable to these changing conditions, because it would be more difficult for them to adapt.
There are many counterarguments to the environmentalist perspective. Although a
consensus exists on the reality of the phenomenon, opinions differ on several issues. Some
scientists argue that global warming is a natural phenomenon; therefore the suggested cutbacks
in energy use are useless and ineffective. The accuracy of some of the more pessimistic
predictions is questioned, since there are different ways of measuring the amount of emissions.
Lastly, there is the political controversy about who should pay the price for emission reduction,
and its potential detrimental effect on the economy.
History of the Problem
The history of this problem dates back to the beginning of Earth itself, as there have
always been changes in the global climate. As one can see from the chart below, major ice ages
occur roughly every 100,000 years, with a temperature change as little as 5¡ Celsius from the
present-day average of 15¡C (represented by the dotted line).
There are also shorter cycles of less dramatic temperature change. The most recent drop
in temperature, called the ÒLittle Ice Age,Ó occurred from 1500 to 1700 C.E. During this period,
glaciers advanced in Europe, and rivers such as the Thames in England froze solid in winter,
which does not happen now. This was the result of less than 1¡C drop in average temperature.
Advances in data gathering and measurement allow scientists to be more certain about
their estimates of past climate periods. The geological record of carved mountain valleys,
scratched bedrock, and glacial debris are all commonly used to estimate climate conditions of the
past several millions of years. Ice core samples, some as long as 2000 meters, have been taken
from the Vostok Station in Antarctica. These ice cores contain bubbles of air, and the ratio of
oxygen in the air shows the average air temperature at the time the bubble was formed. The
deeper the bubble in the core sample, the longer ago it was formed.
Data from air bubbles in the ice cores show that a greater amount of carbon dioxide in the
air is consistent with higher temperatures. Since the 1800Õs, the industrialized world has been
burning vast quantities of fossil fuels, releasing billions of metric tons of CO2. Correspondingly,
according to ship and land records from 1850, the world is warmer now than it was in the 19
th
Century (see graph below). This record is somewhat questionable due to changes in
measurement and observation techniques, but borehole and glacier records uncovered by
geologists also back up the claim.
Depending on oneÕs perspective, the recent global warming, given the history of global
climate change, is either extremely troubling or merely another period of temperature shift in a
historically unstable climate. Whatever the cause, it is clear that increasing temperatures, even
just a couple of degrees Celsius, could have a potentially devastating effect on the world. Rising
sea levels and floods from increased precipitation and melting snow have already come into
effect. According to the director of the United Nations Environmental Program, the higher
temperatures could mean fewer crops, as studies have demonstrated, leaving millions to go
hungry.
Governments and public interest groups became increasingly aware of the global
warming phenomenon during the mid-1980s. In 1988, the United Nations General Assembly
passed resolution 43/53, entitled "Protection of global climate for present and future generations
of mankind." The United Nations also set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) in 1988, to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for
the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change. It does not carry out new
research, nor does it monitor climate related data. It bases its assessment mainly on published
and peer reviewed scientific technical literature. The most important step, some may argue, in
combating global warming came in 1997 with the Kyoto Protocol, committing the industrialized
nations to specified, legally binding reductions in emissions of six greenhouse gases. Since then
significant obstacles have arisen, most notably the rejection of the treaty by U.S. President
George W. Bush.
Past UN Action
As was stated previously, 1988 was a milestone year for combating global climate
change. Over the next couple of years, the IPCC declared human-induced global warming a
serious problem in need of immediate attention, and the UN General Assembly responded by
setting up the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on
Climate Change (INC). On May 9, 1992, the INC adopted the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change. Today, 186 countries are parties to the convention. These
countries meet regularly at the annual Conference of the Parties (COP). The Kyoto Protocol was
established in 1997, with the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in industrialized nations
to 5% below 1990 levels by 2012. At the 4
th
Convention of the Parties (COP 4) in 1998, parties
adopted the ÒBuenos Aires Plan of ActionÓ to further outline the implementation issues of
Kyoto. Subsequent COPs have all attempted to address various concerns with the Protocol. The
most recent Convention in Marrakesh, Morocco, resulted in lesser punishments for countries that
fail to meet the Kyoto targets. This was among many concessions that now have rendered
implementation of the treaty very likely, even without US backing; countries that make up more
than 55% of greenhouse emissions need to ratify the treaty for it to become legally binding
among all industrialized Annex I nations.
Bloc positions
Annex 1
(42 countries):
These are states that are responsible for most of the global emissions, and would be
required to start reducing them under the Kyoto Protocol. Besides the European Union, Annex 1
includes Japan, Australia, the United States, and Russia. The most important disagreement rests
between the United States and the European Union. The United States recently declared that the
Kyoto Protocol is not acceptable as it will harm the countryÕs economy and make it vulnerable
to, for example, China, who would not be required to decrease emissions under KP. So, the US
will not sign the protocol unless some developing countries also commit to reducing their
greenhouse gas output. The EU, on the other hand, argues that developed countries need to begin
dealing with emission reduction before tying developing countries into a binding agreement.
Non-Annex 1
(153 countries):
OPEC countries: Eleven countries that are oil-exporters. They fear that reduced use of
fossil fuel will lower the oil revenues, negatively impacting the economy.
AOSIS (38 countries):Association of Small Island States, who are the strongest
proponents of deep and binding cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions. Global warming is
most dangerous to these islands that are vulnerable to hurricanes, storms, and fluctuating weather
patterns.
Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean: countries that are concerned with economic
development opportunities that may be upset when industrialization limits will be put in place.
China especially fears caps of growth in the future.
A new group has formed in June 2000 by Mexico, Republic of Korea, and Switzerland.
These three states promote the environmental integrity in the Kyoto Protocol.
Possible Solutions
Since the inception of these environmentalist concerns, many protocols and agreements
have been ratified to prevent dangerous interference with the climate system, only to lack proper
measures to enforce the agreed upon rules. While developing nations focus on scientific
concerns of severe floods, droughts, and an increase of malaria and other respiratory diseases,
developed nations are concerned with the economic impact of the high standards set. Current
resolutions and protocols remain at a standstill largely in part over disputes of non-compliance
and the ever-present debate concerning economic burdens.
A recent and controversial protocol, the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, calls for the economic
and environmental burden to be placed on industrialized nations with the intent of allowing a
greater degree of freedom for economic development in developing nations. The Protocol
requires signatory nations to reduce net emissions with a target level of 5% less than 1990 levels.
This standard obviously hits hardest the industrialized nations, leading up to the withdrawal of
the United States from the Protocol.
A recent debate over the Protocol is the dispute over the penalty if a nation fails to
comply. Politicians in Bonn, Germany, last July voiced concerns over the Protocol and agreed
that any country that did not meet its target should face an automatic forfeit in the next
compliance period. Furthermore, the non-complying country would be barred from trading
emissions in that period.
One of the positive impacts resulting from the Protocol is that it creates a new market,
that being emissions trading. Companies are lining up to be the middlemen of these transactions.
This procedure generally involves one country buying emissions production of another country
to give corporations, mostly energy producing, a higher emissions limit.
Aside from political agreement among States, a different means to a solution would
involve shifting the responsibility of emissions reduction from governments to corporations. The
argument behind such a move focuses on the emitters of greenhouse gases. Corporations would
bear the burden of drafting agreements with other corporations and governments. The problem
with this method is that large corporations may strong-arm developed nations which lack a
strong infrastructure to take on financial mammoths.
The economic costs of such environmentally related resolutions are difficult to estimate,
since accounting procedures and international trade rules for greenhouse gasses have yet to be
finalized. Also, forecasting technological changes and public response to it under various
pricing scenarios is an inexact science. The sector that will feel the greatest impact is the energy
industry because energy resources are used to produce most goods and services. Higher energy
prices can have an adverse affect on the economyÕs production potential. Thus, the ramification
of higher energy prices will flow through to the entire economy, businesses and consumers,
unavoidably changing the way of life.
On a macroeconomic level, the ultimate impacts of emissions policies on the economy
will be the interaction of supply and demand, affecting monetary and fiscal policy decisions.
Although this paints a bleak outlook for the economy, its path is not yet determined.
Long-term affects of high-energy costs could result in less energy-intensive sectors, encouraging
energy conservation.
The obstacle in mitigating the negative consequences of global warming does not stem
from ignorance of the full impact of global climate change. Instead, the agreement and
implementation of resolutions largely remain dependent on the economic responsibilities of
signatories. It is your challenge, as delegates of the United Nations Environmental Programme,
to resolve the economic and environmental concerns of participating nations. Is such a resolution
possible? If not, should the Kyoto Protocol take into effect?